NXG Markets Launches Prediction Markets — First Broker to Offer Event Contracts

NXG Markets is opening trading on real-world events to its client base, becoming the first broker of its kind to bring prediction markets — traded through its new platform, Tarkiv — alongside its existing forex, crypto, indices and commodities offering.

Starting this week, NXG Markets clients can do something that, until now, has mostly been the preserve of a handful of specialist US exchanges and a few large brokerage platforms experimenting on the margins: trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates next quarter? Will Bitcoin close above a key level before year-end? Will UAE GDP beat forecasts? Each question becomes a tradable, yes-or-no contract, priced continuously by the market itself.

NXG Markets is calling it a first for retail brokerage in its segment — a traditional multi-asset broker built around forex and CFDs adding a fully integrated prediction markets offering for its own client base, rather than simply pointing clients toward a third-party app. The new product runs on Tarkiv, a dedicated platform built to host and settle event contracts, accessible to NXG clients through the same login they already use for their trading account.

Event contracts have moved from a niche curiosity to one of the fastest-growing corners of trading in the space of about eighteen months. In the US, Robinhood reported roughly $156 million in revenue from event contracts in the second quarter of 2026 alone — a roughly tenfold increase year-over-year — after its clients traded some 13.6 billion contracts in the quarter, making event trading one of the platform's fastest-growing product lines. Traditional brokers have taken notice: IG Group's acquisition of prediction-markets platform Underdog for roughly $1.3 billion, alongside deals such as DraftKings' purchase of Railbird Technologies and Robinhood/Susquehanna's acquisition of MIAXdx, signal that mainstream trading firms now see event contracts as a durable, regulated product line rather than a passing trend.

That momentum has started reaching the technology layer that smaller and mid-sized brokers depend on. Infrastructure providers including Leverate, Devexperts and Match-Trader have all introduced prediction-market technology aimed specifically at brokers who want to offer event contracts without building the pricing, matching and settlement engine from scratch. Industry commentary has framed this as event-based trading shifting "from standalone platforms to broker-ready infrastructure" — exactly the shift that made a launch like NXG's possible on a realistic timeline.

For a broker, the appeal is straightforward: clients who already trade forex, indices and crypto CFDs are, in many cases, the same clients showing up on prediction-market apps to trade macro releases, central bank decisions, elections and sports outcomes. Keeping that activity inside one account, one wallet and one risk framework — rather than losing it to a separate app — is the commercial logic behind the launch.

One contract, one question, a yes-or-no outcome — how a prediction market contract works

For clients new to the format, the mechanics are simpler than they look. Every market on Tarkiv starts as a single, unambiguous question with a defined resolution date and source — "Will the Fed cut rates in September?", for example. Traders buy a YES or a NO contract, priced anywhere between 1¢ and 99¢. That price is not arbitrary: it is the market's live, continuously updated estimate of the probability that the event occurs, set by supply and demand between traders on opposite sides of the question, not by NXG Markets itself.

When the event resolves — confirmed against the stated official source, whether that's a central bank statement, an index close, an election result or a data release — every contract on the winning side settles at $1, and every contract on the losing side settles at zero. A trader who bought YES at 62¢ and is proven right collects 38¢ of profit per contract; a trader on the wrong side of the outcome loses their stake. It's a defined-risk, defined-reward structure: unlike leveraged CFDs, the maximum loss on a prediction market position is capped at what was paid for the contract.

Tarkiv is built as a dedicated venue for this kind of trading rather than a bolt-on feature buried inside the existing trading terminal. Clients browse markets grouped into categories — rates and macro data, crypto milestones, elections, sports, and commodities — see live YES/NO pricing and trading volume for each contract, and place orders through a simple buy panel that shows the average fill price, maximum payout and potential profit before the trade is confirmed.

Tarkiv market screen showing live event contracts, categories and an order panel

Because Tarkiv sits on the same account infrastructure as NXG Markets' existing forex and CFD offering, funding is not a separate exercise: clients trade prediction markets from the same wallet, using the same deposit and withdrawal rails, and can move between event contracts and their existing instruments without switching platforms or re-verifying an account elsewhere. For a broker's clients, that continuity — one login, one balance, one statement — is arguably as significant a part of the launch as the new asset class itself.

The prediction markets space is consolidating quickly, and much of that consolidation is happening through acquisition by firms with far deeper balance sheets than a typical multi-asset broker. By building and launching Tarkiv now, NXG Markets is positioning itself ahead of that curve within its own competitive set — among the brokers clients would typically compare it to — rather than waiting to see whether a listed competitor buys its way into the category the way IG Group did.

"Our clients were already trading event outcomes elsewhere — the question was whether we made that easy inside their NXG account or left the volume on the table," the company said in a statement announcing the launch. "Tarkiv gives us a venue purpose-built for this, and gives clients one place to manage forex, crypto, CFDs and event contracts side by side."

NXG Markets says its initial market slate on Tarkiv will focus on macro and rates events, major crypto price levels, and select political and economic data releases, with sports and additional category coverage expanding in the weeks following launch. The company has also indicated that mobile access to Tarkiv, currently reachable through the web-based client portal, is on its near-term roadmap.

For existing NXG Markets clients, no new account is required — Tarkiv is accessible directly from the client portal at tarkiv.com, using existing account credentials. New clients can open an account through nxgmarkets.com to access both the broker's core trading offering and its new prediction markets venue.

Event contracts are going mainstream — industry growth context for prediction markets

Prediction market contracts carry risk, including the potential loss of the full amount paid for a contract. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change rapidly as new information becomes available. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or financial advice; clients should ensure they understand how event contracts are priced and settled, and consider their own risk tolerance, before trading. Availability of prediction markets and specific contracts may vary by jurisdiction.